CLIMEX
modelling for risk assessment of Asian fruit fly,
Bactrocera
papayae (Drew and Hancock, 1994) in India
V.
Sridhar1*, L.S. Vinesh1, M. Jayashankar1,
P.D. Kamala Jayanthi1 and Abraham Verghese2
1Division of
Entomology and Nematology, Indian Institute of Horticultural Research,
Bengaluru?560 089, India
2National Bureau of
Agricultural Insect Resources, Bengaluru?560 024, India
*Corresponding
Author E-mail: vsridhar@iihr.res.in
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Key
words
Bactrocera papayae,
Climate change,
CLIMEX, modelling,
Quarantine pest
Publication Data
Paper received : 13.07.2015
Revised received : 08.02.2016
Re-revised received : 06.06.2016
Accepted : 08.06.2016
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Abstract
Aim: Risk of
establishment of Asian fruit fly, Bactrocera papayae (Drew and
Hancock, 1994) an alien species to India was made for the present and
expected climate change situations of 1 ?C, 2 ?C and 3 ?C
rise in global temperatures using CLIMEX, a bioclimatic modelling tool.
Methodology
:
CLIMEX, the bioclimatic model was run for 33 known geo-referenced home
locations of B. papayae using ?regional match climate? function in order to
predict the areas with similar Climate Match Index, (CMI ˃ 0.7). The model
was also
run with rise in temperature of 1 ?C, 2 ?C and 3 ?C
for predicting the risk areas for B. papayae establishment, in case
gets introduced accidentally.
Results
:
High climatic similarity was predicted for most parts of South East Asia,
Africa, South America, few parts of Australia, North Western Europe, North
and Central America. In India, a climate match of ˃0.7 was predicted
for the states of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Orissa,
Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Kerala and Chhattisgarh,
which could be potential hot spots for B. papayae, if introduced
accidentally.? In India, with the rise in temperatures from 1 ?C
to 3 ?C, there was a gradual decrease in the climate similarity
for the pest establishment, particularly in the coastal regions of Tamil Nadu
and Andhra Pradesh. However, the climate similarity was projected to increase
in the coastal parts in the states of Karnataka and Maharashtra with 3 ?C
rise in temperature, making the regions more suitable for pest establishment.
Interpretation : Present findings
emphasises the need for close monitoring in the regions predicted to have
congenial climatic conditions for B. papayae and needs strict
quarantine measures against this pest.
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