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Abstract - Issue Sep 2014, 35 (5) Back
nstantaneous and historical temperature effects on a-pinene
the potential geographic distribution of cotton mealybug Phenacoccus
solenopsis in India based on MAXENT ecological niche Model
Fand*, Mahesh Kumar and Ankush L. Kamble
Institute of Abiotic Stress Management (Indian Council of Agricultural
Research), Malegaon, Baramati, Pune-413 115, India.
Authorís E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org
03 October 2013
10 January 2014
28 January 2014
Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley has recently emerged as a serious
insect pest of cotton in India. This study demonstrates the use of Maxent
algorithm for modeling the potential geographic distribution of P.
solenopsis in India with presence-only data. Predictions were made based
on the analysis of the relationship between 111 occurrence records for P.
solenopsis and the corresponding current and future climate data defined
on the study area. The climate data from worldclim database for current (1950-2000)
and future (SRES A2 emission scenario for 2050) conditions were used.
DIVA-GIS, an open source software for conducting spatial analysis was used
for mapping the predictions from Maxent. The algorithm provided reasonable
estimates of the species range indicating better discrimination of suitable
and unsuitable areas for its occurrence in India under both present and
future climatic conditions. The fit for the model as measured by AUC was
high, with value of 0.930 for the training data and 0.895 for the test data,
indicating the high level of discriminatory power for the Maxent. A Jackknife
test for variable importance indicated that mean temperature of coldest
quarter with highest gain value was the most important environmental variable
determining the potential geographic distribution of P. solenopsis.
The approaches used for delineating the ecological niche and prediction of
potential geographic distribution are described briefly. Possible
applications and limitations of the present modeling approach in future
research and as a decision making tool in integrated pest management are
Entropy, Phenacoccus solenopsis, Potential distribution
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